BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 27–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
27–4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 27–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026352645
2027362646
2028362646
2029362646
2030362746

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MacdougallNEW-YORK1112025
E YoungstownNEW-YORK762025
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK752025
GarrettsvileOHIO721991
RomulusNEW-YORK572000
PenfieldNEW-YORK572025
PittsfieldOHIO512024
NaplesNEW-YORK492025
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK472025
DuanesburgNEW-YORK432025
LucerneOHIO422025
Valley CityOHIO422025
WatertownNEW-YORK402012
New SomersetOHIO381993
North EastonNEW-YORK362025
OrleansNEW-YORK342025
HamburgNEW-YORK342025
CastileNEW-YORK342025
NashvilleNEW-YORK342018
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA332025
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA332025
BranchportNEW-YORK322024
WaylandOHIO322017
LattasburgOHIO312025
MaysvilleOHIO312012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.