BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+97%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 27–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
27–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 27–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025362646
2026362646
2027362646
2028362746
2029372747

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GarrettsvileOHIO721991
E YoungstownNEW-YORK682023
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK652024
RomulusNEW-YORK572000
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK542024
MacdougallNEW-YORK512024
PittsfieldOHIO512024
HiramOHIO492021
RushvilleNEW-YORK472024
LucerneOHIO472024
OrleansNEW-YORK462024
NaplesNEW-YORK462024
HebronOHIO432024
ByronNEW-YORK412024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK402024
WatertownNEW-YORK402012
Valley CityOHIO392024
CloverPENNSYLVANIA392024
New SomersetOHIO381993
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA372024
CastileNEW-YORK362024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA362023
CayugaNEW-YORK352024
NashvilleNEW-YORK342018
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK332024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.