BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+97%Since 1968
86Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Mourning Dove has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 27–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029
37Projected 2029 index
27–4795% range
±25.7%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025362646
2026362646
2027362646
2028362746
2029372747

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
GarrettsvileOHIO721991
E YoungstownNEW-YORK682023
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK652024
RomulusNEW-YORK572000
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK542024
MacdougallNEW-YORK512024
PittsfieldOHIO512024
HiramOHIO492021
RushvilleNEW-YORK472024
LucerneOHIO472024
OrleansNEW-YORK462024
NaplesNEW-YORK462024
HebronOHIO432024
ByronNEW-YORK412024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK402024
WatertownNEW-YORK402012
Valley CityOHIO392024
CloverPENNSYLVANIA392024
New SomersetOHIO381993
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA372024
CastileNEW-YORK362024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA362023
CayugaNEW-YORK352024
NashvilleNEW-YORK342018
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK332024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.