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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+208%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 9.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 9.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026126.916
2027127.016
2028127.216
2029127.316
2030127.417

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sand LakeMICHIGAN382025
MayfieldMICHIGAN352025
CunardMICHIGAN302021
WausaukeeWISCONSIN292025
Rib LakeWISCONSIN282025
BashawWISCONSIN282025
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN272025
Frederic 2MICHIGAN272017
PhillipsWISCONSIN272025
Bear LakeMICHIGAN252025
Lake CityMICHIGAN252022
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN251992
WilsonMICHIGAN232010
Cedar RunMICHIGAN231999
HerronMICHIGAN232016
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN211996
LudeMINNESOTA212025
Iron RiverWISCONSIN212025
Washington IWISCONSIN212025
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN202004
CathroMICHIGAN202016
WarroadMINNESOTA202025
Union TwpWISCONSIN202025
OberlinMICHIGAN192024
HarriettaMICHIGAN192025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.