BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 199% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+199%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 199% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 8.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.5–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 8.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.5–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.016
2026127.116
2027127.216
2028127.317
2029127.517

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MayfieldMICHIGAN382022
Rib LakeWISCONSIN362024
GreenbushMINNESOTA342024
Sand LakeMICHIGAN322024
CunardMICHIGAN302021
Union TwpWISCONSIN282024
WausaukeeWISCONSIN282024
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN272024
Frederic 2MICHIGAN272017
Bear LakeMICHIGAN262024
Lake CityMICHIGAN252022
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN251992
PhillipsWISCONSIN252024
WilsonMICHIGAN232010
Cedar RunMICHIGAN231999
HerronMICHIGAN232016
LudeMINNESOTA232023
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN211996
Washington IWISCONSIN212024
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN202004
CathroMICHIGAN202016
OberlinMICHIGAN192024
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN182019
BagleyMINNESOTA172006
Brush CreekMICHIGAN162016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.