BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Bluebird In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Great Basin has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-11%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.23.5
20262.31.23.5
20272.31.13.5
20282.31.13.5
20292.31.13.5

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BuchananOREGON332024
Dougal ResIDAHO312024
BickletonWASHINGTON302019
Bly 2OREGON262024
Green Mtn.OREGON252024
IngallsCALIFORNIA232001
BridgeportCALIFORNIA211973
MacdoelCALIFORNIA202019
HyrumUTAH201979
RanchograndeNEVADA192024
Walker CanNEVADA192024
Lone RockOREGON182024
Crooked Riv.OREGON172024
EllensburgWASHINGTON172024
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA162019
PomeroyWASHINGTON162024
HackamoreCALIFORNIA142010
PaisleyOREGON142024
NewcastleUTAH132022
DeschutesOREGON112024
Barnes ValOREGON101987
AsotinWASHINGTON92024
Mud LakeIDAHO72004
IllipahNEVADA72021
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA62022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.