BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Bluebird In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Great Basin has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.31.13.5
20272.31.13.5
20282.31.13.5
20292.31.13.5
20302.31.13.5

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BickletonWASHINGTON302019
Green Mtn.OREGON292025
BuchananOREGON272025
IngallsCALIFORNIA232001
EllensburgWASHINGTON222025
BridgeportCALIFORNIA211973
MacdoelCALIFORNIA202019
HyrumUTAH201979
RanchograndeNEVADA192024
Walker CanNEVADA192024
Lapham Res.OREGON192025
Lone RockOREGON182024
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA162019
PomeroyWASHINGTON162024
DeschutesOREGON152025
PaisleyOREGON152025
HackamoreCALIFORNIA142010
WagontireOREGON142025
Bly 2OREGON122025
Barnes ValOREGON101987
Crooked Riv.OREGON102025
AsotinWASHINGTON102025
Dougal ResIDAHO92025
Mud LakeIDAHO72004
IllipahNEVADA72021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.