BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Bluebird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-61%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±188.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.030.000.13
20240.030.000.13
20250.030.000.13
20260.030.000.12
20270.020.000.12

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RedstoneMONTANA22015
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA22000
Hay LakeMONTANA12017
SunburstMONTANA11996
ClevelandMONTANA12012
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA12010
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA11992
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA12022
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.