BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mottled Duck In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWaterfowl

Mottled Duck in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968
59Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Mottled Duck has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 211% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+211%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.195% range
±168.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.20.003.1
20261.20.003.1
20271.20.003.1
20281.20.003.1
20291.10.003.1

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Mottled Duck in Peninsular Florida.
SalvistaFLORIDA81978
ShawanoFLORIDA82002
BrowardFLORIDA71973
DavieFLORIDA72002
Merritt IslFLORIDA72007
Citrus ParkFLORIDA62022
Shawano 2FLORIDA62011
Winter GardnFLORIDA42019
Devils GardnFLORIDA42023
MabelFLORIDA32007
PinecrestFLORIDA31999
AndytownFLORIDA31989
NobletonFLORIDA32008
SandyFLORIDA32014
St LucieFLORIDA32024
AlvaFLORIDA32023
Mt. OliveFLORIDA32024
RedlandsFLORIDA32016
Holey LandFLORIDA32024
Ridge HarborFLORIDA32024
ChildsFLORIDA22021
KenansvilleFLORIDA22024
IndiantownFLORIDA22017
TamiamiFLORIDA21966
Pennywash CrFLORIDA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.