BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mottled Duck In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWaterfowl

Mottled Duck in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mottled Duck has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mottled Duck In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 211% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+211%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±168.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 211% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.003.1
20261.20.003.1
20271.20.003.1
20281.20.003.1
20291.10.003.1

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Mottled Duck in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SalvistaFLORIDA81978
ShawanoFLORIDA82002
BrowardFLORIDA71973
DavieFLORIDA72002
Merritt IslFLORIDA72007
Citrus ParkFLORIDA62022
Shawano 2FLORIDA62011
Winter GardnFLORIDA42019
Devils GardnFLORIDA42023
MabelFLORIDA32007
PinecrestFLORIDA31999
AndytownFLORIDA31989
NobletonFLORIDA32008
SandyFLORIDA32014
St LucieFLORIDA32024
AlvaFLORIDA32023
Mt. OliveFLORIDA32024
RedlandsFLORIDA32016
Holey LandFLORIDA32024
Ridge HarborFLORIDA32024
ChildsFLORIDA22021
KenansvilleFLORIDA22024
IndiantownFLORIDA22017
TamiamiFLORIDA21966
Pennywash CrFLORIDA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.