BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mottled Duck In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWaterfowl

Mottled Duck in Oaks and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-7%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mottled Duck in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±217.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.100.000.23
20240.100.000.23
20250.100.000.23
20260.100.000.23
20270.100.000.23

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Mottled Duck in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Peach CreekTEXAS91971
HobsonTEXAS22022
Mount ZionTEXAS22021
SchroederTEXAS11981
CampbelltonTEXAS12019
Arenosa CrkTEXAS12013
YoakumTEXAS12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.