BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Montezuma Quail Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Montezuma Quail in Texas has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-7%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Montezuma Quail Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Montezuma Quail in Texas. See the full index history below.

Montezuma Quail Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Montezuma Quail in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Montezuma Quail in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.10
20250.000.000.10
20260.000.000.10
20270.000.000.10
20280.000.000.10

Montezuma Quail Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Montezuma Quail in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marfa220232005
Bear Mtn220131988
Toyahvale120012001
Indian Mtn120002000
Valentine119871981

Montezuma Quail Population Trend in Other States

arizonanew-mexico

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.