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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Montezuma Quail Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Montezuma Quail in Arizona has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-30%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Montezuma Quail Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Montezuma Quail in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Montezuma Quail Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Montezuma Quail in Arizona is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Montezuma Quail in Arizona is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.69
20260.010.000.68
20270.000.000.67
20280.000.000.67
20290.000.000.67

Montezuma Quail Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Montezuma Quail in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcneal420151997
Peña Blanca420231976
Patagonia320231975
Portal320242003
Sprucedale320232008
Dragoon219991999
Rucker220091993
Amado220232023
Alpine120232007

Montezuma Quail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.