BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mexican Duck Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Mexican Duck in Texas has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-71%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mexican Duck Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mexican Duck has fallen sharply in Texas: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Mexican Duck Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Mexican Duck in Texas is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±296%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±296%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mexican Duck in Texas is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±296%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.18
20270.070.000.18
20280.070.000.18
20290.070.000.18
20300.070.000.18

Mexican Duck Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Mexican Duck in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Presidio1120222006
Bear Mtn520251992
Quitman Cyn.420092000
Slaughter220142014
Van Horn220192019
Guerra220132009
Cavasara Cr.220132009
Quitman Canyon 2220212010
Catarina220091998
Casa Piedra220231986
Sierra Blanc220142010
Canutillo220252021
Marathon120192018
Coyanda Draw120251995
Laredo120112002
Catarina 2120172011

Mexican Duck Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.