BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mexican Duck Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Mexican Duck in Texas has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-39%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mexican Duck Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mexican Duck in Texas. See the full index history below.

Mexican Duck Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Mexican Duck in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±264.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±264.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mexican Duck in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±264.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.19
20260.080.000.19
20270.080.000.19
20280.080.000.19
20290.080.000.19

Mexican Duck Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Mexican Duck in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Presidio1120222006
Bear Mtn620051992
Quitman Cyn.420092000
Slaughter220142014
Van Horn220192019
Guerra220132009
Cavasara Cr.220132009
Quitman Canyon 2220212010
Catarina220091998
Casa Piedra220231986
Sierra Blanc220142010
Marathon120192018
Coyanda Draw120211995
Laredo120112002
Catarina 2120172011
Canutillo120242021

Mexican Duck Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.