BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mexican Duck Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWaterfowl

Mexican Duck in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

-63%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mexican Duck Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mexican Duck has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Mexican Duck Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Mexican Duck in New Mexico is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±119.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mexican Duck in New Mexico is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.000.34
20270.080.000.34
20280.080.000.34
20290.080.000.33
20300.070.000.33

Mexican Duck Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Mexican Duck in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mesilla920001992
Laborcita 2820252024
Gage420092001
Red Rock220132012
Hatchet Peak220162016
Rodeo220171974
Cooley Lake120242024
Columbus120251992

Mexican Duck Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.