BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Marsh Wren In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Marsh Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Marsh Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.26–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.26–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.250.94
20260.600.250.94
20270.600.250.95
20280.600.260.95
20290.600.260.95

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Marsh Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA252024
AshbyMINNESOTA92021
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN82023
OsseoMINNESOTA52004
KnappMINNESOTA52024
New LondonMINNESOTA52024
Indiana DuneINDIANA42024
PettysvilleMICHIGAN41979
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA42022
ManitowocWISCONSIN42005
GlenwoodMINNESOTA32018
HatfieldWISCONSIN31995
S LyonsMICHIGAN21974
CohoctahMICHIGAN22021
RochesterMICHIGAN22002
HamburgMICHIGAN21993
EvergreenMINNESOTA22018
Le CenterMINNESOTA22016
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA22016
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA22024
HudsonWISCONSIN22015
CumberlandWISCONSIN21974
PrincetonWISCONSIN21976
Beaver DamWISCONSIN22023
ParisWISCONSIN22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.