BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Marsh Wren In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Marsh Wren in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+93%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Marsh Wren in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.07
20260.010.000.07
20270.010.000.07
20280.010.000.07
20290.010.000.07

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Marsh Wren in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New LenoxILLINOIS41982
BarringtonILLINOIS32011
MelroseILLINOIS31979
LakevilleMINNESOTA21999
AustinMINNESOTA22023
RichlandNEBRASKA22016
ComptonILLINOIS12017
WayneILLINOIS12024
SherburnvillILLINOIS12016
ChandlervillILLINOIS11985
BartonvilleILLINOIS12019
SterlingILLINOIS12009
ClaytonILLINOIS12018
GaryINDIANA11997
Kankakee SandsINDIANA12024
WilliamsburgIOWA11996
AliceIOWA11988
Sioux CityIOWA12022
TiptonIOWA12021
OlsburgKANSAS12021
Ash CreekMINNESOTA12019
TrentonMISSOURI12019
BloomvilleOHIO11997
FultonOHIO11974
RaymondWISCONSIN12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.