BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mangrove Cuckoo In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Mangrove Cuckoo in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-65%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mangrove Cuckoo has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mangrove Cuckoo in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mangrove Cuckoo in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.040.000.13
20200.030.000.13
20210.030.000.12
20220.030.000.12
20230.030.000.12

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Mangrove Cuckoo in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Key WestFLORIDA31987
Key LargoFLORIDA21991
Punta GordaFLORIDA21984
FlamingoFLORIDA22014
Plantation KFLORIDA11975
Weaver StnFLORIDA12018
Card SoundFLORIDA12016
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA12004
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.