BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+129%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
340Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Louisiana Waterthrush In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.92–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.92–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.881.3
20261.10.891.3
20271.10.901.3
20281.10.911.3
20291.10.921.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY102018
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA92021
MeadowvilleWEST-VIRGINIA92024
Zaleski S.F.OHIO82024
Willis SprngTENNESSEE82022
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA82024
GlenwoodVIRGINIA82023
GhentWEST-VIRGINIA82024
DenmarWEST-VIRGINIA82024
Lost RiverWEST-VIRGINIA82021
BowdenWEST-VIRGINIA82024
CovingtonVIRGINIA72024
RioWEST-VIRGINIA71995
DoverNEW-JERSEY62018
Laurel HillPENNSYLVANIA62024
Natural BridVIRGINIA62024
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY52024
WolfsvilleMARYLAND52024
Piney GroveMARYLAND52024
Mohican S.F.OHIO52024
RavensburgPENNSYLVANIA51975
TellicoTENNESSEE52024
Bald KnobVIRGINIA52024
OlcottWEST-VIRGINIA52023
Valley HeadWEST-VIRGINIA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.