BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Loggerhead Shrike In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGrassland birds

Loggerhead Shrike in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Loggerhead Shrike In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±153.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.80.009.7
20273.70.009.6
20283.60.009.5
20293.50.009.4
20303.40.009.3

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CreoleLOUISIANA271987
MamouLOUISIANA191982
IndianolaTEXAS142024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS132025
JuniorLOUISIANA111991
VanderbiltTEXAS101976
LafitteLOUISIANA91991
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA92011
Grand IsleLOUISIANA62019
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA62025
Lag AtascosaTEXAS62025
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA51981
Oyster LakeTEXAS52025
EstherLOUISIANA42025
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA42025
WinnieTEXAS42025
StowellTEXAS42025
Loyola BeachTEXAS42009
HackberryLOUISIANA32014
Moon LakeTEXAS32011
MauriceLOUISIANA22024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA22019
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA22017
WoodlawnLOUISIANA22021
KatyTEXAS22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.