BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in Central Hardwoods has collapsed: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-99%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Central Hardwoods: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Loggerhead Shrike In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2939.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2939.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2939.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.65
20260.000.000.65
20270.000.000.65
20280.000.000.65
20290.000.000.65

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TullahomaTENNESSEE51999
CentertonARKANSAS42014
ZionARKANSAS32017
DemunbrunsKENTUCKY31988
BoxvilleKENTUCKY31982
HillsboroALABAMA21996
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA21986
Carter GroveALABAMA22011
BirdsILLINOIS21979
Cave In RockILLINOIS22021
KarnakILLINOIS22016
CumbackINDIANA21996
MillionKENTUCKY21977
HodgenvilleKENTUCKY22001
PorterKENTUCKY21981
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY21975
East UnionKENTUCKY22018
Bays ForkKENTUCKY22004
PulaskiMISSOURI21988
Peace ValleyMISSOURI22002
SwedenMISSOURI21988
CascadeMISSOURI21989
HaydenMISSOURI21988
MarshfieldMISSOURI22023
SedaliaMISSOURI22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.