BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Loggerhead Shrike In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Loggerhead Shrike in Prairie Potholes has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Loggerhead Shrike in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Loggerhead Shrike In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.000.69
20270.290.000.69
20280.280.000.68
20290.280.000.68
20300.280.000.68

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlasgowMONTANA102025
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA91999
ChinookMONTANA72025
WhitlashMONTANA52024
PantherIOWA41994
RedstoneMONTANA32024
MidwayNEBRASKA31993
ZearingIOWA21994
ScrantonIOWA21997
GarnerIOWA21989
MccallsburgIOWA22012
SunburstMONTANA22006
HarlemMONTANA22018
OswegoMONTANA22025
GildfordMONTANA22019
Sun RiverMONTANA22017
LambertMONTANA22025
SpartaNEBRASKA22011
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA22019
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA22025
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA22003
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA21979
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA22005
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA22018
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA21994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.