BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Little Blue Heron In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie has held roughly steady: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Little Blue Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Little Blue Heron In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 116% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+116%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±112.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 116% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026130.0030
2027130.0030
2028130.0030
2029130.0030
2030130.0030

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MauriceLOUISIANA842024
MamouLOUISIANA601982
StowellTEXAS462025
WoodlawnLOUISIANA422021
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA412019
RichardLOUISIANA202025
IndianolaTEXAS152024
LafitteLOUISIANA141990
EstherLOUISIANA112025
Forked IslandLOUISIANA112025
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA102011
JuniorLOUISIANA91991
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA91982
CreoleLOUISIANA71980
KaplanLOUISIANA72023
DanburyTEXAS72025
Rock IslandTEXAS72025
WinnieTEXAS62025
Port AcresTEXAS62025
HackberryLOUISIANA52016
VanderbiltTEXAS51974
BaysideTEXAS52003
Goliad PrairieTEXAS52016
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA42025
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS42016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.