BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+5%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Little Blue Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Little Blue Heron In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025130.0030
2026140.0030
2027140.0030
2028140.0030
2029140.0030

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MauriceLOUISIANA842024
MamouLOUISIANA601982
WoodlawnLOUISIANA422021
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA412019
EstherLOUISIANA232024
RichardLOUISIANA212024
KatyTEXAS202023
IndianolaTEXAS152024
LafitteLOUISIANA141990
Port AcresTEXAS132024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA102011
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS102023
JuniorLOUISIANA91991
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA91982
StowellTEXAS92023
Moon Lake 2TEXAS82024
CreoleLOUISIANA71980
KaplanLOUISIANA72023
HackberryLOUISIANA52016
VanderbiltTEXAS51974
Rock IslandTEXAS52024
BaysideTEXAS52003
Goliad PrairieTEXAS52016
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS42016
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.