BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Little Blue Heron In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Little Blue Heron In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.004.2
20271.70.004.1
20281.60.004.1
20291.60.004.0
20301.50.004.0

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wildernes PkFLORIDA162014
ShawanoFLORIDA142002
Dale MabryFLORIDA111988
TamiamiFLORIDA101974
Shawano 2FLORIDA102011
WebbFLORIDA102025
Holey LandFLORIDA92025
SandyFLORIDA82015
ScottsmoorFLORIDA72025
Weaver StnFLORIDA62019
Winter GardnFLORIDA52019
Indiantown 2FLORIDA52023
Mt. OliveFLORIDA52025
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA52018
AripekaFLORIDA42025
San AntonioFLORIDA32025
Polk CityFLORIDA32025
Plantation KFLORIDA31994
Pleasant GrFLORIDA32008
AlvaFLORIDA32023
Mabel 2FLORIDA32025
Lake BuffumFLORIDA32018
Punta GordaFLORIDA32015
Babcock RnchFLORIDA31990
Ridge HarborFLORIDA32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.