BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Little Blue Heron In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.004.2
20261.70.004.2
20271.70.004.1
20281.60.004.1
20291.60.004.0

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WebbFLORIDA242024
Wildernes PkFLORIDA162014
ShawanoFLORIDA142002
Ridge HarborFLORIDA122024
Dale MabryFLORIDA111988
TamiamiFLORIDA101974
Shawano 2FLORIDA102011
SandyFLORIDA82015
Weaver StnFLORIDA62019
Mabel 2FLORIDA62019
Holey LandFLORIDA62024
Winter GardnFLORIDA52019
Indiantown 2FLORIDA52023
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA52018
Devils GardnFLORIDA42024
Plantation KFLORIDA31994
Pleasant GrFLORIDA32008
AripekaFLORIDA32023
AlvaFLORIDA32023
Citrus ParkFLORIDA32024
Lake BuffumFLORIDA32018
Punta GordaFLORIDA32015
GoetheFLORIDA32024
Babcock RnchFLORIDA31990
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA32014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.