BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Little Blue Heron In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
264Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Little Blue Heron In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.490.001.2
20270.480.001.2
20280.460.001.2
20290.450.001.2
20300.430.001.2

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GrangeburgALABAMA412024
ShilohGEORGIA322025
TarverGEORGIA312025
New HopeFLORIDA202011
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA182018
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA162022
Lake MaryMISSISSIPPI141990
DouglasGEORGIA121984
OusleyGEORGIA122025
Gainestown FerryALABAMA112012
SandersonFLORIDA102016
HendersonGEORGIA102025
Doctor InletFLORIDA82000
CorinthMISSISSIPPI82024
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA72025
DickeyGEORGIA72017
HarrellALABAMA62025
MadridALABAMA62023
NeedmoreGEORGIA61982
WeberGEORGIA62025
PhilemaGEORGIA62025
AberdeenMISSISSIPPI62025
St. ElmoALABAMA52025
NewtonGEORGIA52025
DolesGEORGIA52019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.