BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
262Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Little Blue Heron In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.001.2
20260.450.001.2
20270.430.001.2
20280.420.001.1
20290.400.001.1

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GrangeburgALABAMA412024
NewtonGEORGIA402024
New HopeFLORIDA202011
HendersonGEORGIA192024
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA182018
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA162022
TarverGEORGIA152024
Lake MaryMISSISSIPPI141990
DouglasGEORGIA121984
Gainestown FerryALABAMA112012
SandersonFLORIDA102016
Doctor InletFLORIDA82000
CorinthMISSISSIPPI82024
DickeyGEORGIA72017
MadridALABAMA62023
NeedmoreGEORGIA61982
OusleyGEORGIA62024
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA52022
DolesGEORGIA52019
Coffee CoGEORGIA52017
UnionGEORGIA52023
OwensboroGEORGIA52023
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA52024
FoleyALABAMA41977
EufaulaALABAMA42013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.