BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Little Blue Heron In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 98% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-98%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±118.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 98% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.002.4
20260.170.002.3
20270.120.002.3
20280.060.002.2
20290.010.002.2

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Massey LakeTEXAS162024
Three RiversTEXAS112018
Peach CreekTEXAS81984
LocoOKLAHOMA51985
Oak GroveTEXAS51999
Wolfe CityTEXAS51987
Oak Grove 2TEXAS52023
Glen RoseTEXAS41996
AlbanyTEXAS41986
SkiatookOKLAHOMA32012
OlaTEXAS32023
GrafordTEXAS32018
SadlerTEXAS32022
ChoctawOKLAHOMA22008
NobleOKLAHOMA22021
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA21977
DuncanOKLAHOMA22016
Arenosa CrkTEXAS22013
MuldoonTEXAS22009
GauseTEXAS21993
ThorntonTEXAS21982
DallasTEXAS22016
DikeTEXAS22009
Thornton 2TEXAS22010
FanninTEXAS22005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.