BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Little Blue Heron In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Little Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Little Blue Heron In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.45 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.45 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.002.3
20270.130.002.3
20280.080.002.2
20290.030.002.2
20300.000.002.1

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three RiversTEXAS112018
Peach CreekTEXAS81984
Massey LakeTEXAS72025
CarlosTEXAS62025
LocoOKLAHOMA51985
Oak GroveTEXAS51999
Wolfe CityTEXAS51987
Oak Grove 2TEXAS52025
Glen RoseTEXAS41996
AlbanyTEXAS41986
SkiatookOKLAHOMA32012
OlaTEXAS32023
GrafordTEXAS32018
SadlerTEXAS32022
CayugaTEXAS32025
ChoctawOKLAHOMA22008
NobleOKLAHOMA22021
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA21977
DuncanOKLAHOMA22016
MuldoonTEXAS22009
GauseTEXAS21993
ThorntonTEXAS21982
DallasTEXAS22016
DikeTEXAS22009
Thornton 2TEXAS22010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.