BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Scaup In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Lesser Scaup in Great Basin has surged: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+183%Since 1971
61Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lesser Scaup has surged in Great Basin: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Great Basin is projected to rise about 175% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±205.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+175%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.795% range
±205.3%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.10.002.7
20261.10.002.7
20271.10.002.7
20281.10.002.7
20291.10.002.7

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Lesser Scaup in Great Basin.
Iron SpringsIDAHO382024
Catlow RimOREGON342023
DorrisCALIFORNIA172019
Mud LakeIDAHO162023
Blackft ResIDAHO152018
Blizzard GapOREGON102017
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA82019
BrewsterWASHINGTON82014
PrincetonOREGON71975
Bald Mtn.NEVADA62024
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA62016
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON62003
Modoc PointOREGON52009
LynnUTAH52021
EllensburgWASHINGTON52008
Cedar HillIDAHO42024
Dobbin CreekNEVADA41985
HarringtonWASHINGTON42001
Blacks CreekIDAHO31982
Fish LakeOREGON32024
RimrockWASHINGTON31992
QuincyWASHINGTON31998
PotholesWASHINGTON32023
SelahWASHINGTON32012
IngallsCALIFORNIA21996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.