BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Scaup In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Lesser Scaup in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 447% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+447%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Scaup has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 446% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lesser Scaup In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.4–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.4–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.71.34.1
20272.71.34.1
20282.81.44.2
20292.81.44.2
20302.81.44.2

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Lesser Scaup in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA402025
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA272025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA252025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA162025
VirgelleMONTANA101979
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA102025
WhitlashMONTANA92024
WestbyMONTANA92024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA92022
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA92019
GlyndonMINNESOTA81997
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA82024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA72025
ClevelandMONTANA62013
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA61979
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA62015
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA62000
Sun RiverMONTANA52019
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA52014
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA52022
TenneyMINNESOTA42004
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA42008
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA42011
Great FallsMONTANA31980
Ester LakeMONTANA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.