BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Scaup In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Lesser Scaup in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 476% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+476%Since 1969
69Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lesser Scaup has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 476% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029
2.9Projected 2029 index
1.5–4.395% range
±52.1%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.71.34.1
20262.71.44.1
20272.81.44.2
20282.81.44.2
20292.91.54.3

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Lesser Scaup in Prairie Potholes.
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA342024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA272024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA182024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA142023
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA122024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA122024
VirgelleMONTANA101979
WhitlashMONTANA92024
WestbyMONTANA92024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA92022
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA92023
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA92019
GlyndonMINNESOTA81997
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA82024
ClevelandMONTANA62013
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA61979
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA62015
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA62000
Sun RiverMONTANA52019
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA52014
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA52022
TenneyMINNESOTA42004
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA42008
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA42011
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.