BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Scaup In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Lesser Scaup in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 476% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+476%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Scaup has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 476% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lesser Scaup In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.71.34.1
20262.71.44.1
20272.81.44.2
20282.81.44.2
20292.91.54.3

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Lesser Scaup in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA342024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA272024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA182024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA142023
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA122024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA122024
VirgelleMONTANA101979
WhitlashMONTANA92024
WestbyMONTANA92024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA92022
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA92023
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA92019
GlyndonMINNESOTA81997
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA82024
ClevelandMONTANA62013
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA61979
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA62015
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA62000
Sun RiverMONTANA52019
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA52014
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA52022
TenneyMINNESOTA42004
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA42008
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA42011
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.