BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Nighthawk In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Lesser Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Lesser Nighthawk In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 2.4–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 2.4–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.82.19.5
20265.92.29.5
20275.92.39.6
20286.02.39.7
20296.02.49.7

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Lesser Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GageNEW-MEXICO472024
PresidioTEXAS292023
GirvinTEXAS182017
Coyanda DrawTEXAS172024
RodeoNEW-MEXICO132024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO122024
Casa PiedraTEXAS122023
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO112024
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO102019
CastolonTEXAS82024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO72000
PumpvilleTEXAS62024
ComstockTEXAS52023
Black GapTEXAS52023
Devils R CynTEXAS52023
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS52009
Van HornTEXAS52024
CanutilloTEXAS42011
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS42024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO32024
EngleNEW-MEXICO21989
CornudasTEXAS22015
LangtryTEXAS22000
Ft. StocktonTEXAS22016
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO11977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.