BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Nighthawk In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Lesser Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Lesser Nighthawk In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 2.4–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 2.4–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.82.29.5
20275.92.29.5
20285.92.39.6
20296.02.49.6
20306.12.49.7

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Lesser Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PumpvilleTEXAS362025
GageNEW-MEXICO232025
RodeoNEW-MEXICO192025
Coyanda DrawTEXAS192025
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO172025
Black GapTEXAS152025
PresidioTEXAS142025
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO122025
Casa PiedraTEXAS122025
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO102019
CastolonTEXAS82024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO72000
ComstockTEXAS72025
Devils R CynTEXAS52023
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS52009
Van HornTEXAS52025
CanutilloTEXAS42011
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS42024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO32025
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO32025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22025
EngleNEW-MEXICO21989
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO22025
Hot SpringsTEXAS22025
CornudasTEXAS22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.