BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Tern In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Least Tern in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-97%Since 1968
36Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Least Tern has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Tern in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.26 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1685.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.26Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.495% range
±1685.7%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.340.001.5
20260.320.001.5
20270.300.001.5
20280.280.001.5
20290.260.001.4

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Least Tern in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Santa RosaFLORIDA972003
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA262011
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA142005
Dauphin IsALABAMA91990
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA72023
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA71974
BackbayVIRGINIA51969
St. ElmoALABAMA42013
Everett CityGEORGIA41998
Alligator PtFLORIDA31988
DarienGEORGIA31992
ArapahoeNORTH-CAROLINA31977
Alabama PtALABAMA22003
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA22018
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA22014
Doctor InletFLORIDA22000
WadleyGEORGIA21985
GrandyNORTH-CAROLINA21971
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA21974
HardeevilleSOUTH-CAROLINA22024
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA12019
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA12016
Broad BranchFLORIDA11997
MiccosukeeFLORIDA12001
Port St JoeFLORIDA12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.