BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
257Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Least Flycatcher In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.24–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.24–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.800.321.3
20260.780.301.3
20270.760.281.2
20280.740.261.2
20290.720.241.2

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MeridaleNEW-YORK112024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA112024
McdonoughNEW-YORK92017
OxfordNEW-YORK91976
RalstonPENNSYLVANIA91966
Valley HeadWEST-VIRGINIA92024
CooperstownNEW-YORK81977
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA81999
Green BankWEST-VIRGINIA82024
MilfordNEW-YORK72023
S Berne 2NEW-YORK72024
English CtrPENNSYLVANIA71989
Ltl Pine CrPENNSYLVANIA72024
DenmarWEST-VIRGINIA72024
DurhamNEW-YORK61976
S BerneNEW-YORK62013
Platte CoveNEW-YORK62018
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA62024
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA62024
EldredPENNSYLVANIA52022
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA52024
Broad Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA52024
CovingtonVIRGINIA51966
Shenandoa NpVIRGINIA52024
Iron Mountain 3VIRGINIA52023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.