BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Bittern In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Least Bittern in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 2004.

+135%Since 2004TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Bittern in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Least Bittern In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Bittern in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Bittern in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.06
20260.030.000.06
20270.030.000.06
20280.030.000.06
20290.030.000.06

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Least Bittern in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FairmontMINNESOTA32022
Big StoneMINNESOTA22009
ScrantonIOWA12018
CourtlandMINNESOTA12016
DawsonMINNESOTA12004
AppletonMINNESOTA11982
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA12006
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA12023
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA12010
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA12006
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA12015
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA12019
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA12022
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12023
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA12024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA11986
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA12008
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.