BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Bunting In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-73%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 129% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 0.00–80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+129%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 129% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 0.00–80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025340.0084
2026330.0083
2027320.0082
2028320.0081
2029310.0080

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NunnCOLORADO2622021
StonehamCOLORADO2142021
AgateNEBRASKA2042001
KarvalCOLORADO1982019
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO1841995
KirkCOLORADO1742023
Two ButtesCOLORADO1692015
MarslandNEBRASKA1552021
LimonCOLORADO1432024
Last ChanceCOLORADO1122016
BrownsonNEBRASKA1092021
Last Chance 2COLORADO1032024
BoyeroCOLORADO922017
BriggsdaleCOLORADO902024
Wildhorse LCOLORADO782024
FlemingCOLORADO742023
Agate 2NEBRASKA622024
RockportCOLORADO542024
CircleTEXAS532024
Gordon CreekCOLORADO432024
Mica ButteCOLORADO391987
AmherstCOLORADO392024
Sheridan LakCOLORADO382016
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO382023
RushCOLORADO372024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.