BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Bunting In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-60%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 0.00–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 0.00–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026340.0083
2027330.0082
2028320.0081
2029310.0080
2030300.0079

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BriggsdaleCOLORADO2972025
RushCOLORADO2702025
LimonCOLORADO2672025
KarvalCOLORADO2342025
AgateNEBRASKA2042001
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO1841995
KirkCOLORADO1742023
TimpasCOLORADO1682025
EdisonCOLORADO1622025
MarslandNEBRASKA1552021
StonehamCOLORADO1312025
Last ChanceCOLORADO1122016
NunnCOLORADO1102025
Agate 2NEBRASKA1102025
BrownsonNEBRASKA1002025
Last Chance 2COLORADO982025
Gordon CreekCOLORADO972025
Arsenal 2COLORADO952025
BoyeroCOLORADO922017
KimballNEBRASKA892025
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO842025
FlaglerCOLORADO832025
CheyenneWYOMING832025
Wildhorse LCOLORADO712025
EllicottCOLORADO622025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.