BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Bunting In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Prairie Potholes has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-84%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has collapsed in Prairie Potholes: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.0021
20270.000.0021
20280.000.0021
20290.000.0021
20300.000.0021

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ester LakeMONTANA1792025
SacoMONTANA1642025
MaltaMONTANA1452025
GlasgowMONTANA1042025
OswegoMONTANA872025
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA531984
ChinookMONTANA522025
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA492006
WestbyMONTANA392016
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA391993
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA381984
LambertMONTANA362025
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA281993
HarlemMONTANA272021
GlentanaMONTANA252025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA251992
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA242006
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA241988
VirgelleMONTANA142025
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA102007
GildfordMONTANA92025
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA81970
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA61988
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA62000
SunburstMONTANA51993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.