BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Central Hardwoods has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has risen sharply in Central Hardwoods: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.52.74.2
20273.52.74.3
20283.52.84.3
20293.62.84.3
20303.62.84.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mammoth Cave NorthKENTUCKY252013
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY192014
HoosierINDIANA182025
MarshallARKANSAS152021
SanduskyILLINOIS132023
Osage BeachMISSOURI132025
Ozark NfARKANSAS122025
Boston Mtn.ARKANSAS122025
DelwoodILLINOIS122025
CollinwoodTENNESSEE122025
GeorgiaINDIANA112025
JoyKENTUCKY112023
CascadeMISSOURI112025
CentervilleMISSOURI112025
RupertARKANSAS102024
ComptonARKANSAS102022
CorydonINDIANA102025
HegiraKENTUCKY102024
Silver PtTENNESSEE102024
BelmontINDIANA92024
ZionARKANSAS82025
Cave In RockILLINOIS82024
SyracuseMISSOURI82024
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE82023
Bays ForkKENTUCKY72019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.