BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Central Hardwoods has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has risen sharply in Central Hardwoods: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.6 (95% range 2.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.6 (95% range 2.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.52.74.2
20263.52.74.3
20273.52.84.3
20283.62.84.3
20293.62.84.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mammoth Cave NorthKENTUCKY252013
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY192014
Ozark NfARKANSAS162024
GeorgiaINDIANA162024
MarshallARKANSAS152021
HoosierINDIANA152024
Boston Mtn.ARKANSAS132024
SanduskyILLINOIS132023
CentervilleMISSOURI132024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE122024
JoyKENTUCKY112023
RupertARKANSAS102024
ComptonARKANSAS102022
Cross PlainsINDIANA102024
HegiraKENTUCKY102024
GranitevilleMISSOURI102024
Silver PtTENNESSEE102024
BelmontINDIANA92024
CorydonINDIANA92024
Rueter 2MISSOURI92024
RomeOHIO92024
Cave In RockILLINOIS82024
SyracuseMISSOURI82024
WilliamsvillMISSOURI82024
LincolnMISSOURI82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.