BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 141% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±233%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+141%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±233%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 141% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±233%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.001.5
20270.650.001.5
20280.650.001.5
20290.660.001.5
20300.660.001.5

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
VintonLOUISIANA112009
Forked IslandLOUISIANA62017
RichardLOUISIANA32014
Vinton 2LOUISIANA32025
LafitteLOUISIANA21988
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA21976
CreoleLOUISIANA21971
MauriceLOUISIANA22010
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA22024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA22019
StowellTEXAS21995
Port AcresTEXAS22025
JuniorLOUISIANA11988
MamouLOUISIANA11982
HackberryLOUISIANA12014
GlencoeLOUISIANA12015
EstherLOUISIANA12022
KaplanLOUISIANA12015
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA12011
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA12014
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12014
PetronilaTEXAS11968
Hinkles FerTEXAS11994
VanderbiltTEXAS11970
IndianolaTEXAS11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.