BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Indigo Bunting In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.43
20260.080.000.43
20270.080.000.43
20280.070.000.42
20290.070.000.42

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RomeoFLORIDA31990
Mabel 2FLORIDA32019
CorbettFLORIDA32022
Merritt IslFLORIDA32001
MicanopyFLORIDA21991
BelmoreFLORIDA22018
Mt. OliveFLORIDA22011
St AugustineFLORIDA12024
San AntonioFLORIDA12014
MabelFLORIDA12011
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12014
KenansvilleFLORIDA11969
Ft MccoyFLORIDA12009
DeanvilleFLORIDA12008
FlemingtonFLORIDA11997
NobletonFLORIDA12006
Pennywash CrFLORIDA11998
Winter GardnFLORIDA12017
Island GroveFLORIDA12019
FlamingoFLORIDA12011
CrewsvilleFLORIDA12010
OcalaFLORIDA11993
Green SwampFLORIDA12022
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.