BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Indigo Bunting in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 14–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 14–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171421
2027171421
2028171421
2029181421
2030181421

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CokesburyMARYLAND762025
HolleyvilleDELAWARE622004
MillsboroDELAWARE592025
HarmonyMARYLAND562017
PepperboxDELAWARE502016
QuinbyVIRGINIA502025
La PlataMARYLAND492009
TruhartVIRGINIA492024
NewarkMARYLAND482025
Pt RepublicMARYLAND441989
HughesvilleMARYLAND412025
Grove NeckMARYLAND411996
MelitotaMARYLAND402025
HongaMARYLAND402025
MardelaMARYLAND402019
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE382025
SinepuxentMARYLAND361978
White StoneVIRGINIA362025
PomonkeyMARYLAND352025
FredericaDELAWARE342025
BlackbirdDELAWARE342025
Forest GroveMARYLAND332023
FrankfordDELAWARE322012
Island CreekMARYLAND312025
Holleyville 2DELAWARE292024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.