BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 14–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 14–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171421
2026181421
2027181421
2028181421
2029181421

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CokesburyMARYLAND932024
HolleyvilleDELAWARE622004
HarmonyMARYLAND562017
QuinbyVIRGINIA562024
MillsboroDELAWARE522024
PepperboxDELAWARE502016
La PlataMARYLAND492009
TruhartVIRGINIA492024
NewarkMARYLAND452024
Pt RepublicMARYLAND441989
Grove NeckMARYLAND411996
MardelaMARYLAND402019
BlackbirdDELAWARE382024
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE382024
HarringtonDELAWARE372024
HughesvilleMARYLAND372024
EastonMARYLAND372021
HongaMARYLAND372024
SinepuxentMARYLAND361978
Milton 2DELAWARE352017
MillingtonMARYLAND342024
Forest GroveMARYLAND332023
Island CreekMARYLAND332024
FrankfordDELAWARE322012
Piney NeckMARYLAND322024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.