BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
406Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 13–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 13–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201426
2027191325
2028191325
2029191325
2030191325

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY1521997
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY1301995
ClinchportVIRGINIA801978
KehoeKENTUCKY761992
StevensonALABAMA702024
WallandTENNESSEE661989
OmegaOHIO622024
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA612024
ClimerTENNESSEE612004
Jones GapTENNESSEE592019
Coal RunOHIO561992
NeedmorePENNSYLVANIA531991
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA532025
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY511978
Borden SprngALABAMA491998
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA481990
FinzelMARYLAND472025
Pippa PassesKENTUCKY451997
SmithsburgMARYLAND452014
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY442024
LakeviewALABAMA432025
BirminghamOHIO432024
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA422025
BeattyvilleKENTUCKY412001
CovingtonVIRGINIA412025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.