BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
405Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 14–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 14–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201426
2026201426
2027201426
2028201426
2029201426

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY1521997
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY1301995
ClinchportVIRGINIA801978
KehoeKENTUCKY761992
StevensonALABAMA702024
WallandTENNESSEE661989
OmegaOHIO622024
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA612024
ClimerTENNESSEE612004
Jones GapTENNESSEE592019
Coal RunOHIO561992
Front RoyalVIRGINIA552024
NeedmorePENNSYLVANIA531991
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY511978
Borden SprngALABAMA491998
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA481990
DresdenOHIO472024
BebeeWEST-VIRGINIA462024
Pippa PassesKENTUCKY451997
SmithsburgMARYLAND452014
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA452024
CovingtonVIRGINIA452024
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY442024
BirminghamOHIO432024
Mt OliveALABAMA422024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.