BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hutton's Vireo In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Hutton's Vireo in Sierra Madre Occidental has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+42%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hutton's Vireo in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Hutton's Vireo In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hutton's Vireo in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.24–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±136.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hutton's Vireo in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.24–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.700.211.2
20260.700.221.2
20270.710.221.2
20280.720.231.2
20290.720.241.2

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Hutton's Vireo in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PortalARIZONA102024
Carr MtnARIZONA42018
RuckerARIZONA32009
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO32024
Peña BlancaARIZONA22024
PatagoniaARIZONA22024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA22021
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22008
PrescottARIZONA12022
Aztec PeakARIZONA11977
SunizonaARIZONA11977
Bartlett ResARIZONA12010
AlpineARIZONA11996
Mt. GrahamARIZONA12023
SprucedaleARIZONA12007
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12019
DragoonARIZONA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.