BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

House Finch in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 108× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

108×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
341Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 108× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

House Finch In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 0.52–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 0.52–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.00.2912
20266.10.3512
20276.10.4112
20286.20.4712
20296.30.5212

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording House Finch in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RydePENNSYLVANIA562005
BirminghamALABAMA521995
WilliamsportMARYLAND492024
LovellTENNESSEE482019
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA472024
QuakertownPENNSYLVANIA391989
Corryton RdTENNESSEE392019
Mt OliveTENNESSEE382024
HopeNEW-JERSEY301994
DoverNEW-JERSEY282023
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA282024
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA281990
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY272024
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA252001
MillvillePENNSYLVANIA242024
BlacksburgVIRGINIA222024
BerwickPENNSYLVANIA212024
SmithfieldOHIO202024
RamseyPENNSYLVANIA202023
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA202024
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA202024
ParadiseWEST-VIRGINIA192023
ChoccoloccoALABAMA182024
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA171988
RuthbelleWEST-VIRGINIA172024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.