BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

House Finch in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 350× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

350×Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
261Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 350× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.6 (95% range 3.3–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.6 (95% range 3.3–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.32.95.6
20264.43.05.7
20274.53.15.8
20284.53.25.9
20294.63.36.0

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording House Finch in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA342024
JarvisburgNORTH-CAROLINA291999
LakeviewGEORGIA272024
NewtonALABAMA262024
GrangeburgALABAMA252024
UnionGEORGIA252023
Big SandyTENNESSEE252024
HendersonGEORGIA222024
BrundidgeALABAMA212021
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA212024
ShilohGEORGIA202024
FitzgeraldGEORGIA192024
OwensboroGEORGIA182024
PungoVIRGINIA182024
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA172022
ElbertaALABAMA162022
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA162024
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA152019
EufaulaALABAMA152024
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA152011
CokesburyNORTH-CAROLINA152024
TupeloMISSISSIPPI142022
Alabama PtALABAMA132003
LovedaleFLORIDA132011
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.