BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

House Finch in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

15×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.22.9
20262.11.33.0
20272.21.33.0
20282.21.33.0
20292.21.43.1

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording House Finch in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EldoradoTEXAS252023
WellingtonKANSAS242024
SilverTEXAS152024
BeaverOKLAHOMA132003
StrattonNEBRASKA122024
St JohnKANSAS82018
HollenbergKANSAS82018
KenesawNEBRASKA72024
ClarendonTEXAS72024
LibertyNEBRASKA61997
SurpriseNEBRASKA62023
BerwetKANSAS52022
ArthurNEBRASKA52024
VerdenOKLAHOMA52017
PhrosoOKLAHOMA51999
Mertzon 2TEXAS52024
LakeviewTEXAS52019
AlbertKANSAS42024
HanoverKANSAS42022
Jewell 2KANSAS42007
BartleyNEBRASKA42024
BradyNEBRASKA42024
RinggoldNEBRASKA42024
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA42023
GrimesOKLAHOMA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.