BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

House Finch in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1991.

12×Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1991.

House Finch In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.550.001.1
20260.550.001.1
20270.560.001.1
20280.560.001.1
20290.560.001.1

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording House Finch in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CourtlandMINNESOTA112024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA92016
ArlingtonMINNESOTA82021
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA72016
BurchinalIOWA62023
Great FallsMONTANA62024
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA62009
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA52023
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA52012
GarnerIOWA41993
ChandlerMINNESOTA42021
MaynardMINNESOTA42015
WashingtonIOWA32024
WylieMINNESOTA32023
Big StoneMINNESOTA32008
HarlemMONTANA32007
GlasgowMONTANA32000
NashNORTH-DAKOTA32004
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA32021
PantherIOWA22024
ClareIOWA22019
TitonkaIOWA22004
MccallsburgIOWA22024
HartlandMINNESOTA22015
GluekMINNESOTA22007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.