BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Merganser Population Trend in New York

All statesWaterfowl

Hooded Merganser in New York has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Merganser Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hooded Merganser in New York. See the full index history below.

Hooded Merganser Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Merganser in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Merganser in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.12
20260.040.000.12
20270.040.000.12
20280.040.000.12
20290.040.000.12

Hooded Merganser Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Hooded Merganser in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trumansburg820002000
Duanesburg319971997
Speculator319801970
Oriskany Fls220222005
Hamburg220132013
Cherry Hill219821982
S Vandalia220031979
Oxford 2120061986
Highland120122012
S Berne120112011
Laurens120152015
Whitney Pt120162016
Coventryvile120232023
Mcdonough120102010
E Newark120032003
Dryden120242022
Vestal Ctr120062006
Horseshoe L.120131995
Cattaraugus119901986
Castile120102010
E Youngstown120132013
N Wilmurt119851977
Blue Ridge N120172017
Newcomb120011983
Hope Falls119941992

Hooded Merganser Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.