BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Merganser Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWaterfowl

Hooded Merganser in Michigan has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

-5%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Merganser Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hooded Merganser in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Hooded Merganser Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Merganser in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.09 (95% range 0.02–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Merganser in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.09 (95% range 0.02–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.010.15
20270.080.010.16
20280.090.010.16
20290.090.010.16
20300.090.020.16

Hooded Merganser Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Hooded Merganser in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Buffalo319931993
Hungerford220221995
Raco220012001
St Charles220102010
Bootjack119981998
Ned Lake120092009
Herman119931993
Crystal Fls120252010
Gibbs City120251999
Maple Grove120232023
Ishpeming120142004
Brocky Lake120082008
Chippewa Lk.120212000
Shingleton120022002
Creighton120122000
Walloon Lake 2120242024
Bear Lake120212006
Scottville120061999
Seney Nwr120191993
Allegan Wma119951995
Gilchrist119931993
Skegemog Pt120011995
Big Rapids119881988
Nashville120212017
Galesburg120061998

Hooded Merganser Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.