BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Merganser In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWaterfowl

Hooded Merganser in Appalachian Mountains has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-10%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hooded Merganser in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Hooded Merganser In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Merganser in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Merganser in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.03
20260.010.000.03
20270.010.000.03
20280.010.000.03
20290.010.000.03

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Hooded Merganser in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S VandaliaNEW-YORK22003
DresdenOHIO22017
RushPENNSYLVANIA22007
Bow BridgePENNSYLVANIA22017
SusquehannaPENNSYLVANIA22021
Pine Gr MillPENNSYLVANIA22016
LandisburgPENNSYLVANIA22014
LoveltonPENNSYLVANIA22021
Pine GroveALABAMA11993
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY11966
WilliamsportMARYLAND12019
S BerneNEW-YORK12011
LaurensNEW-YORK12015
Whitney PtNEW-YORK12016
CoventryvileNEW-YORK12023
McdonoughNEW-YORK12010
E NewarkNEW-YORK12003
DrydenNEW-YORK12024
Vestal CtrNEW-YORK12006
CattaraugusNEW-YORK11990
MilfordNEW-YORK12014
S Berne 2NEW-YORK12014
Oxford 2NEW-YORK12006
PomeroyOHIO12021
LynchPENNSYLVANIA11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.