BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hermit Thrush In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Hermit Thrush in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hermit Thrush in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Hermit Thrush In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.03–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+76%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.03–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.030.43
20260.230.030.43
20270.230.030.43
20280.230.030.43
20290.230.030.43

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PulaskiRHODE-ISLAND181992
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS142022
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND112018
HuntingtonNEW-YORK81981
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE52023
ShermanCONNECTICUT42010
GreenwichCONNECTICUT41972
WarrenCONNECTICUT42011
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS42006
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS42024
WoodstockCONNECTICUT32005
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT31996
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS31976
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT21988
DanburyCONNECTICUT21972
MarionMASSACHUSETTS21994
WellfleetMASSACHUSETTS21998
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS22001
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND22024
MysticCONNECTICUT12023
E HartlandCONNECTICUT11967
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT12002
WillimanticCONNECTICUT12000
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT12011
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.