BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hepatic Tanager In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Hepatic Tanager in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+102%Since 1971
30Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Hepatic Tanager has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hepatic Tanager in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.2–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029
2.0Projected 2029 index
1.2–2.995% range
±26.8%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.01.12.9
20262.01.12.9
20272.01.12.9
20282.01.12.9
20292.01.22.9

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Hepatic Tanager in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Happy JackARIZONA122024
RuckerARIZONA92009
FlagstaffARIZONA72022
PortalARIZONA72024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO72023
MaineARIZONA42001
Forest LakesARIZONA42024
Clay SpringARIZONA42024
DragoonARIZONA42009
BlueARIZONA31989
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA32021
PrescottARIZONA22022
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
Peña BlancaARIZONA22024
SunizonaARIZONA21980
Skull ValleyARIZONA22011
PinetopARIZONA22022
SprucedaleARIZONA22023
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO22024
Mormon LakeARIZONA11975
PatagoniaARIZONA12024
WilliamsARIZONA12018
AlpineARIZONA12015
RedingtonARIZONA12011
Mt. GrahamARIZONA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.