BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hepatic Tanager In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Hepatic Tanager in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+97%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hepatic Tanager has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Hepatic Tanager In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hepatic Tanager in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hepatic Tanager in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.12.9
20272.01.12.9
20282.01.12.9
20292.01.12.9
20302.01.12.9

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Hepatic Tanager in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RuckerARIZONA92009
ReserveNEW-MEXICO92025
PortalARIZONA72025
SprucedaleARIZONA62025
MaineARIZONA42001
Forest LakesARIZONA42025
Clay SpringARIZONA42024
DragoonARIZONA42009
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO42025
BlueARIZONA31989
PrescottARIZONA22022
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
Peña BlancaARIZONA22025
PatagoniaARIZONA22025
SunizonaARIZONA21980
Skull ValleyARIZONA22011
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA22025
PinetopARIZONA22022
FlagstaffARIZONA12025
Mormon LakeARIZONA11975
WilliamsARIZONA12025
AlpineARIZONA12015
RedingtonARIZONA12011
Mt. GrahamARIZONA12025
SahuaritaARIZONA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.