BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hepatic Tanager In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Hepatic Tanager in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-72%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hepatic Tanager has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Hepatic Tanager In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hepatic Tanager in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hepatic Tanager in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.18
20260.060.000.18
20270.050.000.18
20280.050.000.18
20290.050.000.18

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Hepatic Tanager in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PecosNEW-MEXICO42017
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO32019
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO32023
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO21999
GallinasNEW-MEXICO22021
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO22021
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO22018
SawmillARIZONA12010
WalsenburgCOLORADO12018
LudlowCOLORADO12009
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO11997
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO12023
Horse MtnNEW-MEXICO12021
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO12012
VallecitosNEW-MEXICO12023
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO12024
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.