BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hammond's Flycatcher In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Great Basin has surged: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+149%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in Great Basin: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.80–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.80–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.772.3
20261.60.782.3
20271.60.792.4
20281.60.802.4
20291.60.802.4

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NewhalemWASHINGTON302024
GlacierWASHINGTON242024
Blewett PassWASHINGTON242024
No CascadesWASHINGTON192019
TionestaCALIFORNIA182021
RonaldWASHINGTON182024
RimrockWASHINGTON172024
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON172024
BartleCALIFORNIA162021
PauninaOREGON112013
Silver CityIDAHO101993
MazamaWASHINGTON102022
WinthropWASHINGTON92022
White ChuckWASHINGTON92024
Dell SpringOREGON71999
KendallWASHINGTON62024
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON62024
Index 2WASHINGTON62023
MacdoelCALIFORNIA52019
PaisleyOREGON52023
Suiattle RivWASHINGTON52019
Mud LakeIDAHO42008
Camp ShermanOREGON41996
Cascade RivWASHINGTON42006
BlyOREGON31988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.