BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hammond's Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+127%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hammond's Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.4–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.4–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.33.0
20262.21.43.0
20272.21.43.0
20282.21.43.1
20292.31.43.1

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blue RiverOREGON212024
WaldportOREGON181999
CougarWASHINGTON182023
Klickitat MtOREGON131996
Cool CampOREGON122013
GreenwaterWASHINGTON122024
LoraneOREGON112024
Hurricane RgWASHINGTON102024
HainesALASKA92024
PackwoodWASHINGTON92024
HyderALASKA82009
FisherOREGON82010
RuchOREGON72023
MolallaOREGON72024
Mt St HelensWASHINGTON72024
MontesandWASHINGTON72024
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA61996
ClearwaterOREGON62021
Harlan 2OREGON62024
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON62024
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA52011
ProspectOREGON52024
GazelleCALIFORNIA41995
ShellrockOREGON42023
Elk LakeOREGON42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.