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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gyrfalcon Population Trend in Alaska

All statesBirds of prey

Gyrfalcon in Alaska has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

-36%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gyrfalcon Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gyrfalcon in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Gyrfalcon Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Gyrfalcon in Alaska is projected to fall about 71% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gyrfalcon in Alaska is projected to fall about 71% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05
20280.020.000.05
20290.020.000.05
20300.010.000.05

Gyrfalcon Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Gyrfalcon in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salmon Lake220121996
Council220152003
Red Dog220252025
Cold Bay220191994
Nome120071993
Nabesna Road120072007
Northway120162016
Teller120061995
Cantwell120142014
Toklat119971983
Galbraith L.120222022
Happy Valley120251993
Kanektok Riv119951995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.