Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Gyrfalcon Population Trend in Alaska
Gyrfalcon in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1994.
-57%Since 1994
12Routes In State
22Years
Notable Gyrfalcon Trends in Alaska
long arc declinecomputed index
Gyrfalcon has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1994.
Gyrfalcon Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, Gyrfalcon in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2027
0.01Projected 2027 index
0.00–0.0495% range
±51.3%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| 2024 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| 2025 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| 2026 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| 2027 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Gyrfalcon Survey Routes in Alaska
| Salmon Lake | 2 | 2012 | 1996 |
| Council | 2 | 2015 | 2003 |
| Cold Bay | 2 | 2019 | 1994 |
| Nome | 1 | 2007 | 1993 |
| Nabesna Road | 1 | 2007 | 2007 |
| Northway | 1 | 2016 | 2016 |
| Teller | 1 | 2006 | 1995 |
| Cantwell | 1 | 2014 | 2014 |
| Toklat | 1 | 1997 | 1983 |
| Galbraith L. | 1 | 2022 | 2022 |
| Happy Valley | 1 | 2019 | 1993 |
| Kanektok Riv | 1 | 1995 | 1995 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.