BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Groove-billed Ani Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Groove-billed Ani in Texas has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-38%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Groove-billed Ani Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Groove-billed Ani in Texas. See the full index history below.

Groove-billed Ani Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Groove-billed Ani in Texas is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Groove-billed Ani in Texas is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.21
20260.060.000.21
20270.060.000.21
20280.060.000.20
20290.060.000.20

Groove-billed Ani Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Groove-billed Ani in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Raymondville1220241969
Lag Atascosa320241974
Zapata319841969
L. Atascosa Nwr320232003
Randado220141980
Mirando City219931973
Hobson220092009
Loyola Beach 2220242010
El Sauz220141993
Rachal120131973
Agua Nueva120181969
Kingsville120191973
Encinal119791975
San Ygnacio119851969
George West119941971
Campbellton120091984
Catarina119941987
Loyola Beach120091994
Sejita120211994
Laredo119951995
Bayside120102010
Three Rivers120241996
Millett119971997
Pedro Creek120032003
Guerra120181988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.