BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green-winged Teal In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Green-winged Teal in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-36%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green-winged Teal in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Green-winged Teal In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 91% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+91%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 91% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.000.48
20270.130.000.48
20280.130.000.48
20290.130.000.48
20300.120.000.48

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Green-winged Teal in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HaswellCOLORADO192022
KarvalCOLORADO122014
PantexTEXAS102023
FlemingCOLORADO82003
RuletonKANSAS81991
Murray LakeNEBRASKA81992
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO82003
FloydadaTEXAS72016
BriggsdaleCOLORADO52023
Wildhorse LCOLORADO52024
PaxtonNEBRASKA52015
FrionaTEXAS52017
WakaTEXAS42002
DalhartTEXAS42016
CactusTEXAS42019
YoderWYOMING42015
Last ChanceCOLORADO31994
LamarCOLORADO31979
NunnCOLORADO32017
WallaceKANSAS31995
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO32023
ChanningTEXAS31967
DoughertyTEXAS32017
PanhandleTEXAS32025
Pine BluffWYOMING32018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.